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Tag: courses in financial modelling

Confused Between Model Building Approach Historical Simulation? Things To Consider!

Posted on by Imarticus Learning

If you consider Basel II, there are two ways of calculating Market Risks VAR:
• Historical Simulation Approach
• Model Building Approach

What makes them different?

Historical Simulation approach is most frequently used by organisations. As the name suggests, we consider daily changes in past/historical values to compute the likelihood of the variations in values of current portfolio between given time frame. The other advanced version of this model places more emphasis on recent observations. The key assumption in historical simulation is that the set of possible future outcomes is fully represented by what occurred in a definite historical time frame/window.

On the other side, model-building approach involves assumptions about the joint probability distributions of the returns on the market variables. This model is also known as variance-covariance approach.

This is more apt for portfolios which has short as well as long positions in their bucket. This consists of commodities, bonds, equities, etc. in the portfolio. Here, the mean and standard deviation are computed from the distribution of the underlying assets returns and the correlation between them.

Daily returns on the investments are normally assumed to be multivariate normal which can be the models biggest drawback. Hence, model-building approach makes it easy to calculate Var.

Model Building approach assumes two things:
• The daily change in the value of a portfolio is linearly related to the daily returns from market variables
• The returns from the market variables are normally distributed

Shortcomings of Historical Simulations
Over reliance on past data can fail to serve the purpose as markets change every moment. The momentum can be gradual or sudden, but does not remain static.

Large number of factors like Technology, regulatory changes, economic conditions, seasonal patterns, etc. influence market and in such scenarios manager who are using historical simulation can face unfavorable situation.

Shortcomings of Model Building Approach
Also this approach is much more complex to use when a portfolio comprises of nonlinear products such as options. It is also a grim task to relax the assumption that returns are normal without a significant increase in totaling time.

When to use? Model building vs. Historical simulation.
Depending on the situation, appropriate model should be adopted by the organisation. While both of them have pros and cons, it is important to list down the objectives of risk model before adopting either of them.

Model building approach producer quicker results and can be used in conjunction with volatility and other correlation procedures.

The advantage of the historical simulation approach is that the joint probability distribution of the market variables is determined by historical data. This approach may not be very complicated however, it is little slow for computation. However, the methodology used in historical simulation is in line the risk factor and does not involve any estimation of variances or covariance’s which are statistical parameters.

One should use historical simulation model only when they have data on all risk factors over a justified historical period if they want the model to depict strong representation of the outcome in future.

To know more about model building join Imarticus Learning’s Financial Modeling Certification Courses, which will help you understanding opportunities in the Investment Banking, Private Equity, Budgeting and Financial Control space.

 

Fundamentals of Forecasting – Basic Modeling Hygiene – III

Posted on by Imarticus Learning

By Reshma Krishnan
We are continuing to understand the Fundamentals of Forecasting. Please click here for Part 1 and Part 2.
Many aspiring candidates ask us what is so special about the FMVC program at Imarticus Learning. After all, shouldn’t an MBA suffice? The problem with MBA’s, regardless of which school you go to, is that they don’t teach you role specific issues. For instance, they don’t have specific modeling modules. They will have a forecasting module but they won’t teach you how to model or how to forecast step by step. In the Financial Modelling and Valuation Course (FMVC), India’s leading Forecasting and Financial Modeling program, we teach you the minutae and we go into specifics. One such specific is modeling and forecasting hygiene.
Hard Coding- the model users bane.
This is the first thing I teach in modeling class. Hard Coding is essentially a stand alone number in a cell, which has no back up. It says nothing about the number. You must never hard code a forecasted number because the forecast is always done on the back of an assumption, which has to be modeled in. Hard coded numbers are usually past data, actual data that has been verified and been the result of auditing. A forecasted number should always be a linked number from an assumption.
Colour Coding
Staying with hard coded numbers, it always helps to colour code. In fact, in my class, I mark an assignment zero if it is not colour coded. Red hardcoded number tells me that the forecaster had no option but to hard code. All actuals should be in a different colour to forecasts and all delta numbers, that is the variable you are using to arrive at a forecast needs to also be in a different number.
Give the delta its own cell
Let’s say you want to increase the sale of pencils in 2017 by 10% from 2016. You have two ways to do it.
=(2016 revenue cell) x 10% +(2016 revenue cell) = 2017 revenue.
Or
You create a special cell for 10%
= ((2016 revenue cell) x (10% cell) )+(2016 revenue cell) = 2017 revenue.
Here I am assuming that revenue is growing by 10% . This helps me change the delta as I see fit which then changes my model. The delta is the rational for my model. If you hide it within a formula, I have to constantly look at formulas to find my assumptions.
Learn more about Forecasting by joining our course, FMVC,Financial Modeling and Valuation Course, India’s leading program in Financial Modeling and Valuation and focused on improving your chances on having a career in Investment Banking or Equity Research.

Fundamentals of Forecasting – the Basic Premise of Forecasting – II

Posted on by Imarticus Learning

By Reshma Krishnan
We are continuing to understand the Fundamentals of Forecasting. Please click here
The fewer the assumptions, the stronger the forecast – at least in the beginning when you are learning how to model. Most investment Banking models end up running into 40 assumption sheets, each linked to another. While you might believe such minutiae makes a difference, it’s almost always just to make yourself feel better. Yes, your ability to understand every cost element is good, but its futile if your understanding of the industry works or its cost structure is weak. Key assumptions built into the forecast can also be lost, like trees in a forest. Links can be very hard to find. A simple forecast on the other hand helps you understand what drives basic line items while giving you the ability change basic assumptions. So for instance if you are forecasting the cost of a cup of tea, you break the cup of tea into its major elements, milk, tea, sugar. Three basic drivers, but if you decide to link the price of tea not to the retail rate but to an auction rate that is further linked to an auction house pricing, there are many chances your Financial Analyst coursemodel will be faulty for no tangible benefit.

Forecasting is hard- if it wasn’t, financial modeling and forecasting would not be the number one skill required in financial services, especially Equity Research, or the most popular program in Financial Services Education. It requires patience and a deep thorough understanding of the industry. Forecasting is what Equity Research Analysts do all the time which is why Equity Research Analysts are industry specialists. You won’t find an analyst doing both steel and retail e-commerce. If you are not detail oriented, you are not going to be great at forecasting.
Your forecast is as good as your data, or your weakest link- using solid numbers always feels like an attractive proposition. Investment Bankers love to receive solid data from the clients. Equity Research analysts love to receive solid numbers from the industry or a company but what data do you trust. How often do you use that data? Can you remove the bias in the data. Data you receive from clients will almost always be optimistic, same with industry. Data you receive from Private Equity will almost always be pessimistic. There is bias in every data and your job is to remove bias.
Learn more about Forecasting by joining our course, FMVC, Financial Modeling and Valuation Course, India’s leading program in Financial Modeling and Valuation and focused on improving your chances on having a career in Investment Banking or Equity Research.

Which are the important Financial Modeling Techniques that makes a model flexible?

Posted on by Imarticus Learning

Flexibility or rather, variability and simulation of a scenario under different conditions is the end goal of a model. Here are some of the various techniques you can use to make a model more adaptable.
• Model assumptions clearly- the first step to creating a workable model is to always document the delta assumption. What does that mean? As discussed earlier, if you want to say that you forecast sales of firecrackers during Diwali to up by 15 percent from 2015, then you model in the assumption. The origin value is, lets say, 1000 crackers sold in 2015. The result would by (1000 *0.15) + 1000 which would equal 1150 crackers sold in 2016. But you have to document the 0.15 clearly so that if someone wanted to change that assumption to 20 %, then they would just need to key 20% in instead of 15 and the entire model would change.
• Created more detailed assumptions – While complex models are generally less robust due to higher chances of linkage issues etc, there needs to be some amount of complexity for a model to be useful. For instance we want to forecast revenue from sale of fireworks from 2015 to 2016. First would be to break the Rs 1000 up into the various products like sparklers, (30% of 1000) flowerpots and the like. Once that happens you need to break sales into its component. Sales equals price into quantity. So instead of saying, arbitrarily, that the total sales of sparklers goes up from Rs 300 to Rs 345 (jump of 15%) in 2016 you would say that the number of sparklers would go from 100 sparklers to 115 (model in the 15%) sparklers while the price of the sparkler (Rs 3 per piece ) did not increase at all. (model in the 0%) The flexibility comes in when I change the cell that holes 0% to 10%. This would make the price of the sparkler go up from Rs 3 to Rs 3.30 which would lead to a total sales of Rs 379.5.
• Use a spin button- A spinner helps model in variability especially as it relates to step costs. So let’s say that every extra Rs 200 I make in sales, I need to add one extra sales person. That is not a variable cost. That is a step cost. So when my sales goes up 15% from Rs 1000 to Rs 1150, I don’t need an extra sales person. But what if I want to sell 1250. I need to add one more sales person. A spin button does the job for you. Every time increment sales goes up by Rs 200, one extra person at a salary of Rs x a month will be added to that cell, thereby making your model more adaptable and robust.

Investment Banking- Understanding the Deal: The Pitch Process (II)

Posted on by Imarticus Learning

In our last post we looked at why companies use investment bankers to sell or buy assets. In this post we try and understand what happens once a company decides to use an Investment Banker. What happens next?
Well they first need to look for a banker. So let’s go back to our earlier example taking the government’s stake sale in its Stuuti companies. Before they decided to shortlist Citibank, ICICI and HDFC, they hold a beauty parade where every banker worth their salt ‘parades’ their wares and offerings during a ‘pitch.’
Quite often you’ll find Investment Banking analyst friends working late on Saturday evening. When you ask them why, it’s quite likely they’ll utter the dreaded words, ‘pitch document’. The Pitch Document is the bread of Investment Banking, it’s the pizza base of that great Margerita. Without a great pitch document, all you are left with are handful of deals you managed to wing through your bosses contacts and even then you’re going to have to pitch for the deal. So what is a pitch document? It is a meeting backed up by a document where a banker convinces you, the client, why they are the best team to sell your asset. How do they do it?
The easiest way to explain this is to liken it to selling a pencil. If I have to sell you a pencil, what would I say? I need to tell you why this pencil is better than all the other pencils out there. I also need to tell you why this pencil costs as much as it does. For that I need to know what goes inside the pencil, how much those cost etc. If I need to sell the pencil on your behalf because you are my ‘client’ I need to know everything YOU know about the pencil. The price I sell the pencil at is the ‘value’ of the pencil. I have to explain to you what that value is and how I arrived at that value. I need to convince you I know everything there is to know about pencils, pencil making, the pencil industry, competing pencils so I can sell this pencil better than anyone else out there. So a usual Pitch Document consists of five elements.
1. Establishing my credentials – how many pencils have I sold before and to whom. Whose pencils have I sold and my expertise in selling these pencils. Perhaps I have someone who used to work in pencil manufacturing, Steadler maybe or Apsara, and knows the nuances of pencil making, has the inside track if you will.
2. Company Overview– I tell you a little bit about your company to show you that I know about your pencils. It’s a little counterintuitive I know but it shows I’ve done my homework and know what makes your pencils tick. I might also use this opportunity to tell you any risks I foresee with selling this pencil. Perhaps the pencil has an eraser that’s of an older technology or uses too much wood etc
3. Industry Overview– Here I showcase how much I know about pencils in general, trends in pencil making, what drives pencils usage, opportunities and risks in pencils which will help me forecast the market for pencils and therefore my clients potential market which will flow down to profitability and cashflows
4. Valuation– Once I have cashflows and industry numbers I put together the pencil’s valuation using both cashflows (DCF) as well as the value multiples of other pencils (Comparable PE and EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales multiples )in the market along with the value of what other pencils have been sold at in the past (Transaction multiples)
5. Potential Buyers of your pencil. Using my considerable industry knowledge I tell you who would be most interested in buying your pencil.
All this and more is taught in our FMVC as well as our Diploma in Corporate Finance, both of which are Mumbai’s best courses in Financial Modeling and Corporate Finance and Investment Banking.

 

What Can You Do with Your FMVC Certificate?

Posted on by Imarticus Learning

The great thing about short programs in Financial Services at Imarticus Learning is that you learn skills that can be ‘applied’ rather than just theory, or even cases that are general in nature. We offer one of the leading professional courses in Financial Modeling in Mumbai, which allows you to pursue multiple career opportunities.

Learning Financial Modeling and Valuation is extremely important when you are pursuing a career in both Financial Services and Corporate Finance. The ability to forecast financial statements and build a robust model that is dynamic and clearly reflects underlying assumptions is imperative. The more robust your model, the more accurate your analysis and therefore your company or asset valuations.

Financial Modelling and Valuation is a skill useful across careers like

  • Investment Banking– A good investment banker is at heart a good modeler and someone who is able to fundamentally value a company.
  • Both valuation and forecasting is both a science and an art, therefore you not only need a strong grasp of the fundamentals but an intuitive understanding of their limitations to be able to model and value effectively.
  • Investment Bankers create Financial Models to help make Pitch Documents, Information Memorandums and create scenarios that will help them fine tune valuations. They need to forecast cash flows to be able to do a DCF as well as future Profitability numbers which they can apply multiples to.
  • Private Equity and Venture Capital– As investors, Private Equity professionals need to be able to create financial models of prospective companies they want to invest in to be able to both value as well us understand future cashflows which will determine valuation at exit. Private Equity professionals also have to learn how to create specialized investment specific financial models like Leveraged Buy Out models which will also incorporate the debt into future cashflows to arrive at optimum valuation once you build in exit multiples etc.
  • CEO’s– Financial models are prepared by CEO’s and controllers for both budgeting and funding purposes. Models help finance teams understand cashflow requirements which help them manage their treasury better. Financial Models are also critical to valuing mergers through building in synergy. We call this merger models. Merger models will involve combining the future cashflows of two companies to understand synergy potential that arises out of various economies of scale. This synergy calculation will help in valuation and calculation of control premium
  • Equity Research- Financial Modeling and Valuation is a critical element in the Equity Research toolkit. Equity Research analysts do fundamental analysis to help recommend a ‘buy’ ‘sell’ or hold on a stock. They do this by understanding the industry fundamentals, doing porter’s analysis, and applying these dynamics to a Financial Model which will help them value the company down to the price of a share at any point in time. Their expertise in an industry helps them fine-tune the model.

Financial Modelling and Valuation is also critical to project finance, corporate banking and essentially any role in Corporate Finance which makes FMVC the most career orientated financial modeling course in Mumbai and the most seful certification to help you enhance your resume and kick start your career.