Confused Between Model Building Approach Historical Simulation? Things To Consider!

If you consider Basel II, there are two ways of calculating Market Risks VAR:
• Historical Simulation Approach
• Model Building Approach

What makes them different?

Historical Simulation approach is most frequently used by organisations. As the name suggests, we consider daily changes in past/historical values to compute the likelihood of the variations in values of current portfolio between given time frame. The other advanced version of this model places more emphasis on recent observations. The key assumption in historical simulation is that the set of possible future outcomes is fully represented by what occurred in a definite historical time frame/window.

On the other side, model-building approach involves assumptions about the joint probability distributions of the returns on the market variables. This model is also known as variance-covariance approach.

This is more apt for portfolios which has short as well as long positions in their bucket. This consists of commodities, bonds, equities, etc. in the portfolio. Here, the mean and standard deviation are computed from the distribution of the underlying assets returns and the correlation between them.

Daily returns on the investments are normally assumed to be multivariate normal which can be the models biggest drawback. Hence, model-building approach makes it easy to calculate Var.

Model Building approach assumes two things:
• The daily change in the value of a portfolio is linearly related to the daily returns from market variables
• The returns from the market variables are normally distributed

Shortcomings of Historical Simulations
Over reliance on past data can fail to serve the purpose as markets change every moment. The momentum can be gradual or sudden, but does not remain static.

Large number of factors like Technology, regulatory changes, economic conditions, seasonal patterns, etc. influence market and in such scenarios manager who are using historical simulation can face unfavorable situation.

Shortcomings of Model Building Approach
Also this approach is much more complex to use when a portfolio comprises of nonlinear products such as options. It is also a grim task to relax the assumption that returns are normal without a significant increase in totaling time.

When to use? Model building vs. Historical simulation.
Depending on the situation, appropriate model should be adopted by the organisation. While both of them have pros and cons, it is important to list down the objectives of risk model before adopting either of them.

Model building approach producer quicker results and can be used in conjunction with volatility and other correlation procedures.

The advantage of the historical simulation approach is that the joint probability distribution of the market variables is determined by historical data. This approach may not be very complicated however, it is little slow for computation. However, the methodology used in historical simulation is in line the risk factor and does not involve any estimation of variances or covariance’s which are statistical parameters.

One should use historical simulation model only when they have data on all risk factors over a justified historical period if they want the model to depict strong representation of the outcome in future.

To know more about model building join Imarticus Learning’s Financial Modeling Certification Courses, which will help you understanding opportunities in the Investment Banking, Private Equity, Budgeting and Financial Control space.


 

Introduction to Capital Market

What Are Capital Markets?

Capital markets basically deal with stocks and bonds in general. In simple words, any firm is it private or government, is always in need of funds, so as to finance its various operations to achieve certain long-term goals. Thus every firm is supposed to acquire these very funds or capital; for which, it sells stocks and bonds. These stocks and bonds are basically like shares, all of which are in the companies name. For instance, when the government of any country, issues what are known as treasury bonds, it basically is tapping into the capital markets, thereby generating capital.
This process is basically known as the IPO or Initial Public Offering. Capital Markets are largely divided into two types, the primary markets, and secondary markets. The companies and governments sell their securities in the primary market, whereas the investors trade with these securities in what is known as the secondary markets. Thus, it is safe to say that the capital markets are an important area of the finance industry.

These markets are more like the foundations on the basis of which, various companies and governments are able to invest in businesses, generate employment as well as better infrastructure. One of the core responsibilities of any capital market includes getting the people who are looking to invest, in contact with those looking for capital. Put so simply, this sounds like a very easy task to do, but in reality, a lot of professionals, perform this high-pressure task, to get the desired results.
The private companies look to raise capitals for various reasons, other than just expanding their businesses. They could be looking to finance start-up business ventures, or to battle with the sudden decline in the turnover, or for buying out the competition. While it may seem like it is only those very companies, which are profited from this whole business, it is not so. The very reason someone would want to provide capital is that that person would be looking to gain profit from their financing efforts.
A lot of people know of capital markets as stock exchanges. These are places where anyone can invest and are more commonly known as the public markets. This is where the Initial Public Offering takes place, which is the first time when any firm, comes out into the public to sell their securities. The next step where securities are bought and sold by investors is known as secondary markets, as spoken about earlier.
These secondary markets take place, subsequently after the primary market proceedings are over. Just as there are public markets, there also exist the lesser-known private markets, which are also known as exempt markets. These can be called as more lenient as compared to the public markets, primarily because there are no regulations to be met. Also, this is seen as a more cost-effective way for companies to fund their financing needs.
Thus the arena of capital markets has come to garner more attention by a lot of people, which is why candidates look for programs, which can make them proficient in the inner workings of capital markets. Imarticus Learning one of the best education institute in India offers industry-endorsed courses in capital markets, finance, and investment banking.

Investment Banking – Understanding the Deal – The Deal Process (III)

As we discussed in
Investment Banking- Why do Sellers use an Investment Banker (I)
Investment Banking- Understanding the Deal: The Pitch Process (II)
So now that the banks have pitched for the deal by showcasing their industry knowledge, negotiation and deal prowess and asset valuation, one bank is chosen to exclusively market the asset and execute the deal. The business of developing relationship and signing mandates by going to meetings, researching the industry and pitching is called origination. It is often done by the business development team in large bulge bracket investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Once the deal has been mandated and a Client Agreement has been signed, the execution team takes over. In a boutique bank like Avendus or Mape, same teams often specializing in an industry handle both origination and execution.
The deal process for buying and selling are slightly different and today we will be focusing on selling an asset. A typical advisory structure.

This is the usual process of a deal
1. Preparation –Diagnostics and Consolidation of information- this is where the execution team visits the site and spends time understanding deal nuances, strategic considerations like potential valuation and transaction process once they look at all the information.
•Review The Business, Financial Results & Prospects
•Develop & Refine Financial Forecast
•Gather Financial & Legal Due Diligence Material
•Analyze Structural Considerations, Including Tax & Accounting Issues
•Review Tactical & Strategic Considerations
•Analyze Structural & Timing Considerations
• Create deal Collateral including Information Memorandum, Financial Model and Teaser
2. Planning– Establish Valuation Based On Standard Valuation Techniques
a. Review Strategic Options In Light Of Valuation & Structural Goals
b. Analyze Transaction Structure Alternatives
c. Assist In Development Of Appropriate Acquisition Contract
3. Marketing– Use deal collateral and contacts to
a. Position Company To Appeal To Specific Buyers
b. Identify & Screen Potential Buyers
c. Prepare Management Presentation
d. Develop Data Room and coordinate site visits
e. Conduct Marketing Process With Strict Time Guidelines
f. Minimize Business Disruption
4. Due Diligence and Bid Evaluation
a. Compare & Analyze Bids & Considerations
b. Evaluate Company’s Options
c. Due Diligence by Buyers
d. Analyze Tax & Structural Impact Of Proposed Transaction
5. Negotiation- Negotiate pricing through auction rounds. There are different ways in which you sell or buy a company (See box below) but all of it involves a fair amount of negotiation and many rounds of it. A couple before the due diligence and a few after.

a. Negotiate Price
b. Negotiate terms of sale or SHA and SPA terms
c. Negotiate R & W terms
6. Documentation and closure- A primary legal process but also important for bankers as they coordinate everything. This is one of the reasons why bankers wear many hats. A salesperson, a lawyer, an accountant and sometimes even the local errand boy.
Every part of this process is delved into in detail in FMVC and Diploma in Corporate Finance, India’s leading programs in Financial Modelling and Corporate Finance.


 

Overview of Careers in Finance

The field of Finance is often said to be all about the science of money management. A career in Finance would entail coordinating between assets and liabilities. The finance industry is popularly known to provide lucrative careers and demand intellect of the highest order. As a rule, this prestigious industry attracts a lot of aspirants looking for a career with great opportunities.

Possession of just a graduate degree thins the chances of getting into this field. Thus, it becomes important to either be an MBA or have a higher degree to guarantee a smooth entry herein. There are many courses like certification programs in investment banking, courses in corporate finance and so on. There are a lot of programs offering training to clear various finance exams and acquire certain designations and licenses. Lately a lot of institutes have started offering programs to clear the CFA exams (Chartered Financial Analyst) as well as for the license required to enact certain kind of transactions. One can go for any such short term or long term course to enhance their resume and better their career prospects.

Investment Banking is the most sought after career in Finance. Today, Banks are no longer limited to being agents of withdrawal and depositing of money. There are many types of banks like the investment banks, which act as financial advisors to firms, hedge funds wherein the money of wealthy individuals and companies is managed, the difference here is that there are huge risks taken when it comes to buying and selling public stocks.

Then there are Private Equity firms, which instead of buying securities (stocks) by entire corporations and make convert them into private entities. These firms then either get the corporation entirely under their own banner, or improve their financial situation to earn profits. There are also real estate firms which have their dealings in buying or developing already existing real estate projects. There are firms which deal in ‘real money’ which go on to invest money in various firms to reap the benefits of the same.

There are a lot of roles that a career in Finance offers and a college degree is not always required for them. There are a lot of aspirants, who tend to start off a stint with banks and then after a considerable experience, move on to get a MBA degree. It is imperative to know that investment banking jobs usually have cut-throat competition and roles here include mergers and acquisitions, providing financial advices in terms of financial modeling, evaluation of the firm and so on.

Financial analyst and Financial Advisors also are jobs of substance, if one is very interested to work with data and draw relevant insights; the former career is always preferred. The job profile of a Financial Advisor, with the flexibility of the work and the proximity to the clients as well as the fact that the competition is less, is chosen by quite a few. There are many other career profiles like working for hedge fund firms, private equity firms, portfolio managing jobs, trading, analyst jobs etc. There are also Investment Banking Media jobs, where someone with great communication skills and a sparkling knowledge of the market can work with media houses.

The field of Finance offers high quality careers which demand individuals with great intellect and motivation, in addition to the challenging environment and great compensation. The fact that there is such high competition to get into this field, goes to prove that one needs to have refined skill set for the same.

Imarticus Learning is a renowned education institute offering a host of short term and long term courses in investment banking, corporate finance and more.

Boosting Your Career Through a Diploma In Corporate Finance

Have you been reading the headlines lately and wonder what does it mean when they said Flipkart acquired Myntra? Did they merge? Was it an acquisition? When do they mean when they say company ‘X’ was valued at 3 times GMV? What is Gross merchandise value? Why three times? Why a multiple at all? What on earth are multiples? I would like to be part of this world.
The world is Corporate Finance, an all encompassing term that deals with sources of funding and analyses the capital structure of an organization and provides you with tools to increase share holder value and allocate financial resources effectively so that you get maximum return on your investment. So questions like, should I make this steel plant or buy it? Should I create this web portal or should I buy a competitor. We would then do cost benefit analysis, which would tell us, which would be the route that results in a better return on our investment and increase shareholder value. How does shareholder value increase? That’s part of our classroom series but that’s what you would learn in a Diploma in Corporate Finance (DCF) at Imarticus Learning.
Corporate FinanceA Corporate Finance Diploma in India and globally is usually broken down into two parts. The first part will deal with Corporate Finance Theory and Techniques because Finance is, as you probably know, very technical. Practical application is extremely important but is not possible without understanding the Fundamentals of Corporate Finance. For instance you really cannot value a company without understanding the impact of Time Value of money. For instance why is one rupee today more valuable than one rupee down the line? And if that is the case, my company cashflows down the line will be worth less today. I need to bring those cashflows forward, after factoring in that impact of time on them, add them all up and come to a value for my company. The factor is called a discount rate and we arrive at it by understanding how we have funded the business and the cost of funding the business. Lost but interested?
Fundamentals usually begin with a thorough understanding of Accounting Theory and Financial Statement Analysis, Valuation, the concept of Debt and Equity and capital structure, M&A and Asset Disposal ending with Regulations and Ethics. Once we appreciate the fundamentals, we begin to apply it to the real world. The second section will usually be dedicated to understanding Corporate Strategy, why companies exist and how they make money. You will then move on to how companies grow and the various vehicles they use for growth, which will then move into applying what you learnt in section one to various companies and markets to understand how to create and measure shareholder value and the ways in which shareholder value can grow.
For more information on Diplomas on Corporate Finance in Mumbai and online, please visit https://imarticus.org/finance-courses/ .