In the first quarter of 2018, crude oil prices around the globe saw a four-fold increase in the past 4 years. And while experts were still analyzing as to why this happened, the prices suddenly dropped by more than 30 USD in the coming months. With these data in mind, experts and industrialists around the globe are predicting that 2019 will be a tumultuous year for crude oil prices around the globe.
What industry experts are saying?
The major reason, experts around the world are citing for this sudden rise and again downfall of crude oil prices is oversupply and demand worries. But other than this, there are several more power dynamics that are at play here. OPEC’s Viennese waltz in early December is a perfect example for this shifting dynamics where Rusia signed a deal to reduce their produce in the year 2019 and bear the reins with the former global leader, Saudi Arabia. But although this move by Russia and Saudi Arabia was widely accepted and acclaimed on a global stage, President Donald Trump’s tweets, demanding lower oil prices and US manufacturers pumping unprecedented volumes of crude oil into the market is a major threat to all the hard work, Russia and Saudi Arabia have done over the years.
In an interview with the International Energy Agency, the station chief Neil Atkinson said that there are “major uncertainties” and “even more hazardous than usual” predictions for 2019’s crude oil prices.
Another reason that major leaders in the crude oil industry are worried about is geopolitical uncertainties which can seriously set prices off track and even create a shortage in the market.
Global Leaders' Excerpts
LiveMint which is a business news website reached out to industrialists and people of knowledge across the industry and asked for a comment on the rising oil prices and their opinions on what might be the state of oil prices in 2019. The common answer that all of them had to this issue is that there might be a demand and supply struggle in the coming months of 2019.
Some of the major industry leaders LiveMint interviewed were Ryan Lance, CEO of ConocoPhillips, Greg Sharenow, portfolio manager, Pimco, David Lebovitz, VP and global market strategist, JPMorgan, Neil Atkinson, IEA’s head of oil markets and all of their comments were along the same line.
A significant takeaway from the interviews was the fact that the market is predicted to operate smoothly and volatility like that of 2018 is not expected. Since the price per barrel of oil is at a stable rate as of now, leaders are saying that this is a sign from both the consumers as well as producers perspective.
While the tension keeps on rising around industrialists and manufacturers from around the globe, whose businesses are centred or partly depend on global oil prices, predictions about the market seem to be correct for now. With time, we will realize how this will affect us on a larger scale and thus the best we can right now is wait and watch.